July 2026 — Thunderbird Desktop support spikes

Executive summary · 2026-07 · 731 questions · regenerated 2026-08-09 05:44 UTC · no AI (regex + traditional stats)

✅ July 2026 was clean

No spike cleared threshold at any grain. No provider outage, no protocol surge, no AV breakage, and no release regression in July 2026.

Detector daily weekly monthly
version×cause (release regressions) 0 0 0
cause-level (provider · protocol · AV) 0 0 0

Spike timing lags the incident. A spike dates when users piled in, typically days after onset and often near resolution. Treat these as pain-cluster / triage signals, not real-time detection.

🔄 This verdict is not frozen when the month ends. Lift is measured against each cause’s rate across all history, so later questions shift a closed month’s expected values and rows can cross the threshold in either direction; answered-% keeps firming up as late answers land. That is why this page regenerates daily — and because each day’s version is committed, git log -p on this file shows exactly how the verdict evolved.

🔍 Near misses (within ~25% of threshold) — 4 rows

Clusters the same detectors flag at 0.75× the thresholds (i.e. within ~25% of firing) but which did NOT clear the real ones. Not incidents — context, so that “clean” is not confused with “quiet”.

Version × cause

Grain Lift When Version × Cause Qs Served Example questions
weekly 2.9× 2026-07-27 v153 × m:comcast 4 75% ans · 5.4h 1595937 1595941 1596164
daily 2.8× 2026-07-02 v152 × proto:imap 4 ⚠️ 50% ans · 7.6h 1590718 1590790 1590808 1590848
weekly 2.8× 2026-07-06 v152 × proto:oauth 5 80% ans · 5.4h 1591762 1591813 1591979 1592379 1592479
weekly 2.7× 2026-07-06 v140 × proto:smtp 5 100% ans · 6.1h 1591795 1591885 1591986 1592019 1592468

All July 2026 detail

🚨 Version × cause spikes — 0 rows

None.

📮 Cause-level spikes (provider · protocol · AV) — 0 rows

None.

📦 Release-adoption version/OS spikes (not incidents) — 15 rows

Version and OS are filters, not causes — a bare version spike is release adoption, not a regression. Listed for manual checking only.

Grain Rise When Dimension Value Qs Baseline
daily 3.1× 2026-07-01 tb_version_major 152 11 1590558 1590593 3.5
daily new 2026-07-23 tb_version_major 153 11 1594355 1594359 0.0
daily new 2026-07-24 tb_version_major 153 8 1594604 1594673 0.0
daily new 2026-07-26 tb_version_major 153 15 1594896 1594901 0.0
daily new 2026-07-27 tb_version_major 153 11 1595089 1595090 0.0
daily new 2026-07-28 tb_version_major 153 11 1595265 1595273 0.0
daily new 2026-07-30 tb_version_major 153 9 1595713 1595723 0.0
daily new 2026-07-31 tb_version_major 153 18 1595834 1595845 0.0
monthly new 2026-07 tb_version_major 153 101 1590618 1590771 0.0
monthly 422.0× 2026-07 tb_version_major 152 211 1590558 1590593 0.5
monthly 3.1× 2026-07 tb_version_major 150 26 1590853 1591057 8.5
weekly 52.0× 2026-06-29 tb_version_major 152 78 1590162 1.5
weekly 26.0× 2026-07-06 tb_version_major 152 65 1591418 1591432 2.5
weekly new 2026-07-20 tb_version_major 153 43 1594201 1594241 0.0
weekly new 2026-07-27 tb_version_major 153 79 1595089 1595090 0.0
📈 July 2026 trends — 6 rows

Top versions

Value Questions Trend (by day)
v152 211 ▆█▄▆▃▆▇▆▆▄▂▃▆█▄▃▁▆▃▅▆▂▂▁▁▂▁▂▂▁▁
v140 186 ▅▆▆▇▆▇▅▅█▅▄▂▅▅▅▅▆▄▅▇▅▅▅█▂▇▅▄▇▃▅
v153 101 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▃▅▄▃▇▅▅▄▅█
v150 26 ▁▃▃▁▁▃█▁▆▃▆▁▃▁▁▃▁█▆▆▆▃▁▁▁▃▁▃▃▁▁
v115 16 ▆▃▁▁▁▃▁▁▆▁▁▃▁▃▁▁▆▁▁▁▁▁▆▁▁▁▁▁█▁▃
v149 6 █▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁█▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁

Top mail providers

Value Questions Trend (by day)
m:gmail 73 ▃▅▅▅▆▂▃▅▅▆▅▁▁▆▁▃▅▅▂▁▁▅▂█▂█▃▅▂▆▃
m:microsoftemail 36 ▁▅▃▂▂▁▁▃█▁▁▅▁▅▁▃▂▁▁▃▂▃▂▁▁▂▃▂▂▂▁
m:yahooemail 30 ▃▅▃▁▆▃▃▃▃▃▁▃▃▁▁▁▁▃▃▁▃▁▁▅▁▅▃█▅▁▅
m:comcast 13 ▁▅▁▅▁▁▁▅█▁▁▁▁▅▅▁▁▅▁▁▁▁▅▁▁▅▁▁▅▁█
m:icloud 6 ▁▅▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▅▁▁▁▁▁▅▁▁▁▁▁▁▅▁▁▁▁▁
m:btinternet 6 ▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁█▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁

Top protocols

Value Questions Trend (by day)
proto:imap 56 ▂▇▄▄▂▅▄▄█▁▁▄▂▄▂▂▂█▁▄▄▄▇▁▁▅▅▂▄▁▄
proto:pop 42 ▁▃▃▅█▅█▅▅▁▁▃▅▁▃▁▁█▅▁▃▃▃▅▃▁▃▆▁▃▆
proto:smtp 35 ▂▂▂▁▂▁▄▇█▁▁▂▁▂▄▂▁▁▂▂█▄▁▁▂▂▂▁▂▂▂
proto:oauth 20 ▁▅▁▅▁▁▁██▁▅▅▅▅▁▅▅▁▁▁█▁▁▁▅█▅█▁▁▁
proto:caldav 3 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
proto:ews 1 ▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁

Top antivirus

Value Questions Trend (by day)
av:norton 3 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁█
av:bitdefender 2 ▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
av:eset 2 ▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
av:avast 2 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
av:defender 2 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█
av:mcafee 1 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁

OS mix (filter dimension)

Value Questions Trend (by day)
os:windows 589 ▅▆▅▅▄▆▇▆▇▅▄▃▇▇▄▅▄▅▄▇▇▅█▆▂▆▇▆▆▄█
os:linux 61 ▇▅▆▁▁▁▃▃▂▂▁▁▅▂▁▃▅▂▂▃▁▅▇▁▃█▅▆▃▅▃
os:macos 45 ▂█▁▄▁█▁▅▂▄▂▄▄▄▄▁▂▅▁▄▁▂▄▄▁▁▂▁▅▂▂
os:other 11 ▅▅█▅▁▁▁▁▁▅▁▁▁▅▁▅▁▁▁▁▁▅▁▅▁▁▅▁▁▁▁
os:android 7 █▁▁▁█▁█▁██▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁

macOS releases (filter dimension)

Value Questions Trend (by day)
macos:tahoe 5 ▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▅▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▅▅▁
macos:sequoia 2 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
macos:sonoma 1 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
macos:sierra 1 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁
macos:monterey 1 ▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁▁█▁▁

Detectors run at daily / weekly / monthly grain; a weekly period is included when its week overlaps July 2026. Version×cause requires a known version, which is only populated from 2026-02 onward; cause-level uses all history. Full spike CSVs: PROJECT1/desktop-{daily,weekly,monthly}-{single,version-cause}-spikes.csv.